Life assurance businesses

The principal subsidiary involved in the Group’s life assurance operations is Scottish Widows plc (’Scottish Widows’), which holds the only large With Profit Fund managed by the Lloyds TSB Group. Throughout 2006 and up until the third quarter of 2007, the Group also owned Abbey Life Assurance Company Limited (which had been closed to new business since March 2000) but this business was sold at the end of September 2007.

Basis of determining regulatory capital of the life assurance businesses

Available capital resources

Available capital resources represent the excess of assets over liabilities calculated in accordance with detailed regulatory rules issued by the FSA. Different rules apply depending on the nature of the fund, as detailed below.

Statutory basis. Assets are generally valued on a basis consistent with that used for accounting purposes (with the exception that, in certain cases, the value attributed to assets is limited) and which follows a market value approach where possible. Liabilities are calculated using a projection of future cash flows after making prudent assumptions about matters such as investment return, expenses and mortality. Discount rates used to value the liabilities are set with reference to the risk adjusted yields on the underlying assets in accordance with the FSA rules. Other assumptions are based on recent actual experience, supplemented by industry information where appropriate. The assessment of liabilities does not include future bonuses for with-profits policies that are at the discretion of management, but does include a value for policyholder options likely to be exercised.

‘Realistic’ basis. The FSA requires each life assurance company which contains a with-profits fund in excess of £500 million, including Scottish Widows, to carry out a ‘realistic’ valuation of that fund. The word ‘realistic’ in this context reflects the terminology used for reporting to the FSA and is an assessment of the financial position of a with-profits fund calculated under a prescribed methodology.

The valuation of with-profits assets in a with-profits fund on a realistic basis differs from the valuation on a statutory basis as, in respect of non-profits business written in a with-profits fund (a relatively small amount of business in the case of Scottish Widows), it includes the present value of the anticipated future release of the prudent margins for adverse deviation. The realistic valuation uses the market value of assets without the limit affecting the statutory basis noted above.

The realistic valuation of liabilities is carried out using a stochastic simulation model which values liabilities on a basis consistent with tradable market option contracts (a ‘market-consistent’ basis). The model takes account of policyholder behaviour on a best-estimate basis and includes an adjustment to reflect future uncertainties where the exercise of options by policyholders might increase liabilities. Further details regarding the stochastic simulation model are given below in the section entitled ‘Options and guarantees’.

Regulatory capital requirements

Each life assurance company must retain sufficient capital to meet the regulatory capital requirements mandated by the FSA; the basis of calculating the regulatory capital requirement is given below. Except for Scottish Widows, the regulatory capital requirement is a combination of amounts held in respect of actuarial reserves, sums at risk and maintenance expenses (the Long-Term Insurance Capital Requirement) and amounts required to cover various stress tests. The regulatory capital requirement is deducted from the available capital resources to give ‘statutory excess capital’.

For Scottish Widows, no amount is required to cover the impact of stress tests on the actuarial reserves. However, a further test is required in respect of the With Profit Fund, which compares the level of ‘realistic excess capital’ to the ‘statutory excess capital’ of the With Profit Fund. In circumstances where the ‘realistic excess capital’ position is less than ‘statutory excess capital’, the Company is required to hold additional capital to cover the shortfall, but only to the extent it exceeds the value, calculated in a prescribed way, of internal transfers from the With Profit Fund. Any additional capital requirement under this test is referred to as the With-Profits Insurance Capital Component. The ‘realistic excess capital’ is calculated as the difference between realistic assets and realistic liabilities of the With Profit Fund with a further deduction to cover various stress tests.

The determination of realistic liabilities of the With Profit Fund in respect of Scottish Widows includes the value of internal transfers expected to be made from the With Profit Fund to the Non-Participating Fund of Scottish Widows. These internal transfers include charges on policies where the associated costs are borne by the Non-Participating Fund. The With-Profits Insurance Capital Component is reduced by the value, calculated in the stress test scenario, of these internal transfers, but only to the extent that credit has not been taken for the value of these charges in deriving actuarial reserves for the Non-Participating Fund.

Capital statement

The following table provides more detail regarding the sources of capital in the life assurance business. The figures quoted are based on management’s current expectations pending completion of the annual financial return to the FSA. The figures allow for an anticipated transfer of £300 million from the Long Term Fund to the Shareholder Fund as at 31 December 2007.

The figures shown above for available capital resources within the insurance business relate to Scottish Widows plc only. The estimated total additional resources relating to the other life assurance subsidiaries within the Group are £330 million.

The comparative position as at 31 December 2006 was as follows (again, relating to Scottish Widows plc only):

Formal intra-group capital arrangements

Scottish Widows has a formal arrangement with one of its subsidiary undertakings, Scottish Widows Unit Funds Limited, whereby the subsidiary company can draw down capital from Scottish Widows to finance new business which is reinsured from the parent to its subsidiary. Scottish Widows has also provided subordinated loans to its subsidiary Scottish Widows Annuities Limited and its fellow group undertaking Scottish Widows Bank plc.

Constraints over available capital resources

Scottish Widows was created following the demutualisation of Scottish Widows Fund and Life Assurance Society in 2000. The terms of the demutualisation are governed by a Court-approved Scheme of Transfer (the ‘Scheme’) which, inter alia, created a With Profit Fund and a Non-Participating Fund and established protected capital support for the with-profits policyholders in existence at the date of demutualisation. Much of that capital support is held in the Non-Participating Fund and, as such, the capital held in that fund is subject to the constraints noted below.

Requirement to maintain a Support Account: The Scheme requires the maintenance of a ‘Support Account’ within the Non-Participating Fund. The quantum of the Support Account is calculated with reference to the value of assets backing current with-profits policies which also existed at the date of demutualisation and must be maintained until the value of these assets reaches a minimum level. Assets can only be transferred from the Non-Participating Fund if the value of the remaining assets in the fund exceeds the value of the Support Account. Scottish Widows has obtained from the FSA permission to include the value of the Support Account in assessing the realistic value of assets available to the With Profit Fund. At 31 December 2007, the estimated value of surplus admissible assets in the Non-Participating Fund was £1,915 million (31 December 2006: £1,962 million) and the estimated value of the Support Account was £827 million (31 December 2006: £974 million).

Further Support Account: The Further Support Account is an extra tier of capital support for the with-profits policies in existence at the date of demutualisation. The Scheme requires that assets can only be transferred from the Non-Participating Fund if the economic value of the remaining assets in the fund exceeds the aggregate of the Support Account and Further Support Account. Unlike the Support Account test, the economic value used for this test includes both admissible assets and the present value of future profits of business written in the Non-Participating Fund or by any subsidiaries of that fund. The balance of the Further Support Account is expected to reduce to nil by the year 2030. At 31 December 2007, the estimated net economic value of the Non-Participating Fund and its subsidiaries for the purposes of this test was £4,028 million (31 December 2006: £3,962 million) and the estimated combined value of the Support Account and Further Support Account was £2,834 million (31 December 2006: £2,873 million).

Other restrictions in the Non-Participating Fund: In addition to the policies which existed at the date of demutualisation, the With Profit Fund includes policies which have been written since that date. As a result of statements made to policyholders that investment policy will usually be the same for both types of business, there is an implicit requirement to hold additional regulatory assets in respect of the business written after demutualisation. The estimated amount required to provide such support at 31 December 2007 is £193 million (31 December 2006: £216 million). Scottish Widows has obtained from the FSA permission to include the value of this support in assessing the realistic value of assets available to the With Profit Fund. There is a further test requiring that no amounts can be transferred from the Non-Participating Fund of Scottish Widows unless there are sufficient assets within the Long Term Fund to meet both policyholders’ reasonable expectations in light of liabilities in force at a year end and the new business expected to be written over the following year.

Movements in regulatory capital

The movements in Scottish Widows plc’s available capital resources can be analysed as follows:

The primary reasons for the movement in total available capital resources during the year are as follows:

With Profit Fund

Available capital in the With Profit Fund has decreased from £3,686 million at 31 December 2006 to an estimated £3,608 million at 31 December 2007. The key driver is investment market performance, which was broadly neutral over 2007.

Non-Participating Fund

Available capital in the Non-Participating Fund has decreased from £1,962 million at 31 December 2006 to an estimated £1,915 million at 31 December 2007. This is primarily a result of the anticipated transfer from the Non-Participating Fund to the Shareholder Fund at the year end of £300 million, offset by the return generated from the business.

Shareholder Fund

During 2007, dividends of £1,860 million were paid. These were partly financed by the sale of Abbey Life Assurance Company Limited.

Financial information calculated on a ‘realistic’ basis

The estimated financial position of the With Profit Fund of Scottish Widows at 31 December 2007, calculated on a ‘realistic’ basis, is given in the following table, in the form reported to the FSA. As a result of the capital support arrangements, it is considered appropriate to also disclose the estimated ‘realistic’ financial position of the Long Term Fund of Scottish Widows as a whole, which consists of both the With Profit Fund and the Non-Participating Fund.

The financial information calculated on a ‘realistic’ basis reconciles to the Capital statement as follows:

The sale of Abbey Life Assurance Company Limited during 2007 reduced total policyholder liabilities by £11,632 million.

Capital sensitivities

Shareholders’ funds

Shareholders’ funds outside the long-term business fund, other than those used to match regulatory requirements, are mainly invested in assets that are less sensitive to market conditions.

With Profit Fund

The with-profits realistic liabilities and the available capital for the With Profit Fund are sensitive to both market conditions and changes to a number of non-economic assumptions that affect the valuation of the liabilities of the fund. The available capital resources (and capital requirements) are sensitive to the level of the stock market, with the position worsening at low stock market levels as a result of the guarantees to policyholders increasing in value. However, the exposure to guaranteed annuity options increases under rising stock market levels. An increase in the level of equity volatility implied by the market cost of equity put options also increases the market consistent value of the options given to policyholders and worsens the capital position.

The most critical non-economic assumptions are the level of take-up of options inherent in the contracts (higher take-up rates are more onerous), mortality rates (lower mortality rates are generally more onerous) and lapses prior to dates at which a guarantee would apply (lower lapse rates are generally more onerous where guarantees are in the money). The sensitivity of the capital position and capital requirements of the With Profit Fund is partly mitigated by the actions that can be taken by management.

Other long-term funds

Outside the With Profit Fund, assets backing actuarial reserves in respect of policyholder liabilities are invested so that the values of the assets and liabilities are broadly matched. The most critical non-economic assumptions are mortality rates in respect of annuity business written (lower mortality rates are more onerous). Reinsurance arrangements are in place to reduce the Group’s exposure to deteriorating mortality rates in respect of life assurance contracts. In addition, poor cost control would gradually depreciate the available capital and lead to an increase in the valuation of the liabilities (through an increased allowance for future costs).

Assets held in excess of those backing actuarial reserves are invested across a range of investment categories including fixed interest securities, equities, properties and cash. The mix of investments is determined in line with the policy of Lloyds TSB Group to minimise the working capital (defined as available capital less minimum required capital) required to ensure all capital requirements continue to be met under a range of stress tests.

Options and guarantees

The Group has sold insurance products that contain options and guarantees, both within the With Profit Fund and in other funds.

Options and guarantees within the With Profit Fund

The most significant options and guarantees provided from within the With Profit Fund are in respect of guaranteed minimum cash benefits on death, maturity, retirement or certain policy anniversaries, and guaranteed annuity options on retirement for certain pension policies. For those policies written pre-demutualisation containing potentially valuable options and guarantees, under the terms of the Scheme a separate memorandum account was set up within the With Profit Fund of Scottish Widows called the Additional Account which is available, inter alia, to meet any additional costs of providing guaranteed benefits in respect of those policies. The Additional Account had a value at 31 December 2007 of £1.7 billion (2006: £1.8 billion). The eventual cost of providing benefits on policies written both pre and post demutualisation is dependent upon a large number of variables, including future interest rates and equity values, demographic factors, such as mortality, and the proportion of policyholders who seek to exercise their options. The ultimate cost will therefore not be known for many years.

As noted above, under the realistic capital regime of the FSA, the liabilities of the With Profit Fund are valued using a market-consistent stochastic simulation model. This model is used in order to place a value on the options and guarantees which captures both their intrinsic value and their time value.

The most significant economic assumptions included in the model are:

• Risk-free yield. The risk-free yield is defined as 0.1 per cent higher than spot yields derived from the UK gilt yield curve.
• Investment volatility. The calibration of the stochastic simulation model uses implied volatilities of derivatives where possible, or historical observed volatility where it is not possible to observe meaningful prices. For example, as at 31 December 2007, the 10 year equity-implied at-the-money assumption was set at 25.5 per cent (31 December 2006: 20 per cent). The assumption for property volatility was 15 per cent (31 December 2006: 15 per cent). The volatility of interest rates has been calibrated to the implied volatility of swaptions which was broadly 11 per cent (31 December 2006: 13 per cent).

The model includes a matrix of the correlations between each of the underlying modelled asset types. The correlations used are consistent with long-term historical returns. The most significant non-economic assumptions included in the model are management actions (in respect of investment policy and bonus rates), guaranteed annuity option take-up rates and assumptions regarding persistency (both of which are based on recent actual experience and include an adjustment to reflect future uncertainties where the exercise of options by policyholders might increase liabilities), and assumptions regarding mortality (which are based on recent actual experience and industry tables).

Options and guarantees outside the With Profit Fund of Scottish Widows

Certain personal pension policyholders, for whom reinstatement to their occupational pension scheme was not an option, have been given a guarantee that their pension and other benefits will correspond in value to the benefits of the relevant occupational pension scheme. The key assumptions affecting the ultimate value of the guarantee are future salary growth, gilt yields at retirement, annuitant mortality at retirement, marital status at retirement and future investment returns. There is currently a provision, calculated on a deterministic basis, of £65 million (31 December 2006: £98 million) in respect of those guarantees. If future salary growth were 0.5 per cent per annum greater than assumed, the liability would increase by some £3 million. If yields were 0.5 per cent lower than assumed, the liability would increase by some £12 million.